Natural Selection + Use and Disuse = Media Environment

Recently, I have received an  interview invitation from Mumbai, India. Although the compensation only 400 - 700 USD / month that I still want to go (my salary is about 1100 USD / month now). But unfortunatelly, there are 1,000 USD credit card installments that I have not paid. I must give up the opportunity, whether I want to give up or not. 

Despite knowing I can not go, I still prepared an English CV and sent it out yesterday. Because...I want to know where is the position of me around the world. When I preparing the Englis CV there are something confused me. "Where is the advantage of media worker?" When I thinking about it, THE ORIGIN OF SPECIES (written by Darwin) appeared in front of me.

To be continued...懂中文的話，直接點下面那隻蛇看中文版吧。

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黃郁棋 11/03/2012 04:12:00 上午

Social Network Will Merge E-Wallet in the Future?

Yesterday we have talked about Google stock price collapse 9% at 8 minutes, and Google's CEO "Larry Page" leave a long message at his G+ page in order to extinguishing. Larry Page says that mobile monetization will reach 8 billion more than 2012 target 2.5 billion.

So, now I want to explain what will happen in the future, abundance information, abundant computing, and abundant of mobile facility. 

Because of the transition from one screen to multiscreens, the internet advertising now in a difficult position. An advertising cost for a smartphone or a tablet is "cheaper" than computer.I tried to use the super power to predict the future of internet, or social network.

1.The future of social network, must join the "E-wallet" function.

2.The future of social network, must to be merged with  "Electronic Commerce".

3.The main customer is not sitting in front of a computer, the mobile facility user is the target for above two features.

If you have operating a blog or online media, then you must have seen a truth: "The banner ad now has a bad bad Click Though Rate, even lower than 0.1%." Maybe CPM will help increase the image of your business for these audience, but not fast enough.

Nowadays more and more entrepreneur chose "CPA" to be the main ad manner, but for these bloggers and online media operators that CPA profit not enough support their business, and needless to say the efficiency of "CPM", "CTR" at the mobile facility.

Latest Observations

Recently, I have observed a phenomenon from Alexa that there are a monster invaded Taiwan internet. This monster come from china, named "Taobao". It's just like a popular "Chinese Amazon" and has 600 million member around the world.

If the Social Network combine with an auction site, what will happen? Let me guess, the last time you pay money for some stuff at internet is in what kind of case?

1. You have seen a beautiful model wearing a beautiful dress, and you want to be beautiful just like her...So you paid money in an auction site.

2. You have seen an open box article and be enticed to buy the same stuff, so you take out your VISA credit card and...

3. Maybe you surfing a shopping website and forgot your lunch, then you careless paid these items.

Okay, above three reason you paid money are Similarities. One at the auction site, the others are because the influence of "blogs" and "social network".

Try to imagine that if the auction site and social network "combined", what will happen?

I dare to say that the site will become a monster because the website will monetize the flow and E-Wallet (included be a middleman) to a huge amount of money. Maybe the auction site and social network can through "cross-industry" to combine and share the profit.

Status analysis

I guess the first one complete cross-industry alliance company is "Taobao" and "Sina Weibo". China monetize the website flow and auction site are done very well, and do anything are faster than other country. But all in all it just prediction, let us observe the future.

The second one is "Google". Why? because google already have a almost perfect E-Wallet system and have a shopping site "Google play" (they not only sold the software, but Nexus 7 and then quickly sold out) and "Google Shopping". Of course, there are a good social network "Google+" too! Over 100 million active users per day.

 I think the "Broken Information" is a good thing and a bad thing too. Broken information let us always get the latest information, but nearly 80% are spam. Nowadays, more and more broken information appear in our Facebook or Twitter, and a good filter is necessary.

Google+ have a good conception named "Circle", we must classify our friend and give these circle a name. Maybe you can create a circle named "Spam" or "Unwanted" to classify these friend he always post junk information. In my opinion, Google+ is a better platform to merge the EC (Electronic Commerce) system than Facebook or twitter.

The social network is an unexploited gold mountain. Although so many people open it everyday, but no one finished a great monetization.

Where we go tomorrow? heh...

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黃郁棋 10/22/2012 05:46:00 上午

Google創股價史上最大跌幅，淘寶網是下一波贏家？

雖然每個網路產業經營者，都有他的理想在；但說到底，賺錢還是最終目標。

以Google為例，大家用Gmail、GoogleSearch、Chrome、Android甚至Google Drive已經成為習慣，但在背後支撐這一切的，是Google Adsense。而Google的第3季收益下修20%，大幅超出分析師預期。財務報告流出後，公司的股價在8分鐘內下跌9%，造成公司市值損失240億美金，這是股票市場有史以來最大的跌幅。

「股票市場有史以來的最大跌幅！」

▲去Google辦公室工作，是許多人的夢想。（圖／Numelo）

或許很多人對這報導興致缺缺，但它的影響無遠弗屆。尤其是科技產品依賴如此沉重的今天，你能想像一個不賺錢的Google搜尋引擎，一搜尋都是垃圾網頁嗎？你能想像不再更新的Google Map，看到的資料還是十年前的嗎？

Google執行長Larry Page在自己的Google Plus上發表了一長篇文章，試圖穩定民心以及廣告主。（真的很長，讓我從士林站看到關渡站）內容主要是形容Google廣告主採購的Google廣告並未減少，甚至較去年同期增加33%。然而，每次點擊的費率下跌15%。（手機版廣告不值錢）

這狀況有多嚴重？簡單講，如果Google再不找出解決之道，他們就慘了；勢必要裁員以及縮小經營規模。去年Larry Page預言的移動裝置廣告收入是25億美元，昨天他修正了這個數據，接下來是80億美元。換句話說，沒有失敗餘地，不成功，便成仁。來看看他怎麼形容移動裝置的變革：

「In short, as we transition from one screen to multiscreens, Google has enormous opportunities to innovate and drive ever higher monetization.  Just like Search in 2000.」

他認為這項改變與2000年的搜尋引擎成長，是一樣重要的；因為找不到移動裝置的有效獲利方式，那它就沒有商業價值。（除了手機製造商，例如Apple；蘋果iPhone固然好用，但我堅持不買，因為它真的賣得太貴，給旗下生產線的毛利率實在太摳。一旦某家公司成為商業巨獸，我就會以行動來抗拒，雖然對它們幾乎毫無影響。）

▲淘寶網在台灣的網站排名急速上升。（圖／香港淘寶網）

換個角度想，我們生產免費的News Application，有很大的潛在價值；但現在還沒有誰真的靠它賺大錢。Facebook以及Zynga都在萎縮，究竟誰會是下一波移動裝置浪潮的贏家？或許不是Google，而是大陸阿里巴巴淘寶網？這很有趣，值得觀察。

最近淘寶網走到哪都無往不利，根本沒有任何國家擋得住；雖然它不是「功能」型的網站，但潛在獲利能量極其可觀。由於它超受歡迎，且不完全靠效果越來越差的Banner廣告曝光量與點擊量賺錢；行動電子商務平台一旦打造起來，不必然會輸給Google Adsense。

大膽猜測，Google在移動裝置策略的下一步，同樣是行動電子商務平台的加強（Google Play拍賣？24小時購物？）只有縱觀整個網路、甚至時代浪潮，能夠順水推舟、而不是逆流而上的公司，才能成為下一波贏家。

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黃郁棋 10/20/2012 11:28:00 下午